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OUR ENERGY FUTURE AND ECONOMIC FUTURE ARE LINKED

USING HISTORY AS A PORTAL TO  OUR FUTURE

BACKGROUND

This blog is a shortened version of a full Powerpoint presentation LINKED here: http://slidesha.re/wt3OgO  .     America’s  2+ centuries of formal  existence gives us much perspective from which to view today’s world. Have you been to the recreated old town of Williamsburg, VA?  If so, you’ve seen (LINK) that in the  late  1700’s,   life  looked  good even as we recognize  differences in  housing, which were much smaller and without many of the indoor, life-quality-enhancing features we enjoy today.  Much  of the ENERGY used came pretty directly from human toil.  But the air of freedom was healthy to breathe and invigorating.  

Over the years, our freedoms, including the efforts of private businesses, helped build a Nation that indisputably distinguished itself from all others.   Our minds readily visualize  a modern city, such as we might see  when contemplating travel  to New York, or Los Angeles, or Chicago,  or many others.  But how about checking out online (OR LINK): the  Petronas Towers in Kuala Lumpur,  Malaysia.   Highly impressive as well.  What’s the point here?   Just this: around the world, people have aspirations to be like us, both in civic and material things.  That is to say, our success (and our generosity) have wakened  Citizens of other nations to try to emulate us.  That’s all to the good.  But it also means we cannot rest on our oars if  we are to maintain the global leadership and prosperity of our past. 

Today, we use much more ENERGY per person than we did in the 1700’s.  And it exacts a price on both our existing, natural fuels and our environment.  But it also gives us:  freedom from much burdensome toil; added light and warmth;  longevity;  easy transportation, communication and entertainment; and others.   In a nutshell, our ENERGY use brings a much  higher quality of life.   But it also makes us aware that providing for our future energy needs is critical to our health, our travel, our leisure time , etc.    So history urges us to look ahead as well as back.  And that’s the purpose of this blog note.

SOME OF  THE ISSUES

Our Energy resources are as fundamental to our well-being and survival as the oxygen we breathe.   Our energy path is closely tied to our economic decisions, which comprise a 2nd critical ingredient.  Together, due to linkage between these 2 policy areas,  they exert a lot of leverage on our future.  Unfortunately, except in the more specialized media for political analysis,  the level of  public political  debate on this linkage is fairly limited.  So the purpose of this blog note is to focus a little more attention on several aspects of this subject and perhaps stir things up a bit.

It would be, in my opinion, helpful to the Nation, if we could  stop the extreme negativity of political discourse and the setting of Citizen against Citizen.  Our ENERGY and our ECONOMIC futures  should be an area - -  with sufficient education - -  where all Citizens could coalesce  behind a rational plan.  Our Economic Policy needs a strong component  devoted to a forward look at our energy future.   Our Energy Policy, today pretty much AWOL from the scene,  needs the  benefit of a strong  tie to economic reality.  We need an alliance of creative and forceful Leadership  together with activist Citizens who can help  integrate these 2 critical foundations of our future prosperity.  So I’ve put forth some thoughts here and in the more detailed slideshow  exposition Linked at the bottom of this note. 

There are some encouraging facts and actions that support a rational plan which exploits  synergisms  between energy solutions and economic solutions. Here are a few points:

  • ·         We are an energy-rich Nation.
  • ·         Intelligent energy solutions can actually help add jobs and help free up needed  funds  to meet other of our future needs.  Some  are being illustrated as this is written.
  • ·         A well-crafted policy can exploit these strengths and assure American prosperity and security for our children and grandchildren.

 

As the linked slideshow  illustrates,  America is rich in recoverable fossil fuels.  Much of  this resource has become potentially available through very  recent  extraction technologies.  This is good news for today, for next year and for several decades.  But it is not a long range plan for the future.  The future inevitably must open a path to more renewable and potentially less polluting supplies including nuclear, solar, wind, biomass etc. 

But these renewable supplies are not available today without incurring significant  cost penalty.  This penalty, in a competitive world, is like entering a long-distance race while being the sole volunteer to carry a 200 pound backpack of lead.   It may be a grand gesture, but as a strategy for winning, it leaves much to be desired. So in the meantime,  we must build a bridge to the future fuels, using those we rely upon today.  Am I saying, we should just relax and  be happy in our use of domestic oil, gas and coal?  No.  That would be irresponsible. What I’m saying is that an energy policy worthy of it’s name must deal now with both existing and future fuels by laying out a plan that provides a reasonable “bridge” between the two. 

So should the Gov’t  just mandate to which fuels and at what times this bridging should take place?  No.  I don’t think the government is smart enough to do that. And that’s not because I think all government employees are incompetent.  Rather, it’s because the problem is complex and private enterprise plus Citizens voting with their wallets provide many more resources to come to the right answer.  But the government  should undertake a limited role that incentivizes the broad  Research and Development that can open up paths to lower the costs of renewable fuels.  An example to follow might be some adaptation of the NACA/NASA Agencies role in research regarding aircraft development.  This research helped Boeing, McDonnell Douglas, Northrop, Pratt & Whitney, GE and many others to make a great success of America’s aviation efforts.  There should be some excellent “lessons learned” available.

In the meantime, we are fortunate to be developing  our own domestic resources, such as recently exhibited in North Dakota associated with the Bakken fields of oil shale.   Production there has created several boomtowns and significantly increased the oil & gas output in just the last few years.  Kudos to those associated with this effort.  Our children and grandchildren will be beholden to you!

But there are many further  facts and examples to build upon. To cite just a few:

  • ·         Resumption of Deepwater Drilling in the Gulf of Mexico
  • ·         Exploring and exploiting oil & gas potential in the Outer Continental Shelf
  • ·         Opening up ANWR for production in Alaska
  • ·         Planning for the Keystone XL pipeline to help move our fuel dependency from remote foreign  sources to a North American neighbor of longstanding  good relations.

 

Of course, there are those who see things very differently.  Unfortunately,  the airwaves and streets are often filled with demands for action that are largely supportive of  narrow, special-interest Groups.  Such Groups have a right to speak for their beliefs.  But those who support a policy more as outlined in this note,  have an equal right and must make more time to speak  in behalf of it.

Nevertheless,  the overall direction in which we must travel is clear.   Granted,  the details remain to be resolved through technological gains,  the efforts of intelligent  incentives by government,  and development by Private Enterprise.  A chart in the Linked analsis, from the U.S.  Energy Information Agency,  makes a rational projection of what the future might look like under  some reasonable assumptions. Whether this is an optimum assumption or even the initial basis for a final plan is anyone’s guess.  But it does illustrate a continuous bridge from our past energy use to a future  that incorporates more renewable fuel sources.  What is needed is  a Citizen-Government-Industry consensus on how to get from today to the future based on evolving technology,  upon Citizen choice,  and upon  market–driven offerings .

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS

We must not succumb to those who see only government-dictated energy choices and highly exaggerated forecasts of environmental doom lest precipitous choices be made to jump prematurely to new technologies.  With such a jump,  costs will boomerang  into  a handicap to America’s economic competitiveness. 

In sum, known  challenges exist and there are likely many others yet to be uncovered.  But that is  a situation America has  faced before.  We have the talent, the ideals and the freedom to solve these problems as Americans before us have done.  But it will take broad Citizen action to surmount the narrow interests that have been gaining undeserved  influence in our Nation.   Now is a critical and timely opportunity to assemble  a coalition of  Citizens behind a balanced plan for success in our  economic and energy activities. An adjunct to this effort should be a series of debates involving Citizens, Business and Government .  Topics would include: Our Energy policy;  Environmental Issues; and, the tie-in with our Economic Policy.  Any interest in helping  structure such a series on the Internet?   Let’s hear some  reader  thoughts.

Further  materials regarding this blog subject can be found in this expanded Slideshare presentation and its bibliography:

 http://slidesha.re/wt3OgO   or    http://www.slideshare.net/MarkS181/mbs-ppt-debt-economypdf-wjpegs   

MarkS



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DEFENDING THE NECESSITY OF WAR

 

This note links to a pictorial essay from the point of view of a  Conservative-GOP adherent.  This posting comes on the heels of the 5th anniversary of the War in Iraq.   It follows a number of anti-war demonstrations across the country. For those, as I do, who believe the military action in Iraq is simply part of a larger Global War on Terrorism, these demonstrations are a sad reflection on some, privileged to live in America today, because brave men who came before us stood up to tyrants who wished to plunder our Freedom. 

 

Moreover, the anti-war demonstrators spew a volley of half truths and full-up distortions in their zeal to “bring our Troops home”. So this blog today, actually a  powerpoint discussion (see link below) tries to offer an evidence-based rebuttal to the anti-war mantra. The anti-war folks cry: OIL! ; THERE WERE NO WMD’s ! ; SADDAM WASN’T OUR ENEMY! ; AMERICA CAN’T AFFORD THIS WAR ! ; etc, etc.  

 

But the evidence says: IT’S NOT THE STUPID OIL; THERE WAS AND IS A WMD THREAT; SADDAM WAS WORKING WITH AL QAEDA; THE WAR IS NOT OUR PRIMARY BUDGET THREAT.   Some will believe this analysis; some will not. But a good part of the data is laid out. All can draw their own conclusions.

 

My own belief is that the threat to our Freedom is real and serious. Can we be the American generation that fails to carry the torch of Liberty? Will we be the shirkers, who were so concerned with our own well being that we squandered the secure America we inherited, and left tyranny for our children and grandchildren.   Our Military will certainly not be such shirkers. But some of our politicians and peaceniks may very well try. We should not let them succeed!

 

“All that is necessary for evil to triumph, is for good men to do nothing” ……. Edmund Burke

 

The link below will  take you to the Powerpoint charts. At the site, to view, click on the icon below the chart, "full” (i.e.,  full screen view); then use the new bottom arrows to navigate from chart to chart.  Here's the link; please discuss the issue with your friends and  pass along your thoughts to your Congressional Representatives and other community leaders: http://www.slideshare.net/MarkS181    , see  DEFENDING THE NECESSITY FOR WAR

 

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APPLYING OUR HERITAGE OF FREEDOM

 

This note links to a pictorial essay from the point of view of a  Conservative-GOP adherent. It tries to make several  basic points:

o       The Conservative view has been accorded  reduced public admiration and respect in the last 2 decades.   Mostly coinciding with events subsequent to the conclusion of Ronald Reagan’s shining Presidency.

o       This deterioration is not due to the obsolescence of Conservative principles, which remain strong and sound. Rather, I believe, it is our own inadequate, ineffective public advocacy  coupled with the growth of the Liberal Media’s drumbeat disparaging our views.

o       I don’t mean to imply the Conservative side is without some leadership. The Limbaughs, Savages, Ingrahams, Hannitys, Coulters, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Times and many others do lead the fight. The problem seems to be that the Followership is content to leave the battle to that leadership.   Not so, on the Liberal side. An amalgam of far left forces ( Al Gore’s “Global Warming” zealots, MoveOn.org, Code Pink, etc. ) seem to be amassing adherents who hit the streets and Congressional phone lines with the flimsiest of  arguments, which often remain unrebutted. This lack of rebuttal ultimately adds credence and momentum to the Leftist goals  - -  particularly to our young people.   It has gotten us today, to the spectacle of 2 extreme Liberals seriously vying for the Presidency of one of our major political parties, which already has control of both Legislative Houses.

o       But hand-wringing will get us nowhere. More grassroots leadership and much more active organization is required. To me the best hope on the horizon is the movement that Newt Gingrich is trying to organize, under the banner of “American Solutions”.  Newt’s path remains true to our Heritage, but is forward-looking and focused on solving today’s problems. Moreover, it addresses these problems through reliance on such solid bedrock Conservative values as are found in:

§         the great body of political thought  we have received from our Founding Fathers

§         the ethical and philosophical  teachings of our major religions,  and

§         the precepts of Capitalism and it’s reliance on the individual and the free market

o       So, do we all chain ourselves to the nearest Liberal  bastion and create a media event? Well, that’s not exactly what I had in mind. But there are many paths open to make a much more substantive showing: greater participation in the new media; issues discussion with local, state and federal  officials (both friendlies and unfriendlies); government initiative processes;  periodic Rallies to support worthwhile ideals and programs.   Sound too mundane? Perhaps. But I believe the citizenry at large have a hunger for a more righteous America with a more participative government. Moreover, without this level of activism, we are abandoning our young people to fall prey to the empty, Messianic slogans of Socialism.    I fear we are letting our freedom slip away. Are we to be the generation which allows the ideals of America to crumble?

Hopefully, this essay offers some constructive thoughts. 

The link below will  take you to the Powerpoint charts. At the site, to view, click on the icon below the chart, "full” (i.e.,  full screen view); then use the new bottom arrows to navigate from chart to chart.  Here's the link; please discuss the issue with your friends and  pass along your thoughts to your Congressional Representatives and other community leaders: http://www.slideshare.net/MarkS181    , see  APPLYING OUR HERITAGE OF FREEDOM )  

 

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Man-Made Global Warming - One Skeptic's View

 

I’m advancing this note in connection with our Conservative Enthusiast Group, which meets monthly to discuss issues such as this.  We’d like your participation in our presentations as a speaker and/or a listener / questioner. If you have some thoughts on issues that you feel need further exposure or discussion, please contact Mark S at  msussm@msn.com  to coordinate a meeting date and time allocation for your briefing.

This blog is largely in Powerpoint format.  The purpose of this specific presentation is to voice deep skepticism of the growing political hype and zealotry over the Man-Made Global Warming (MMGW) issue. Al Gore likes to say the threat is proven and now "settled" by scientific consensus.  But this is simply untrue.

My critique here points out some of the many good scientists who remain deeply skeptical of, if not substantively antagonistic to, the allegation of significant MMGW. This perspective is based on significant data and physical reasoning, which suggests MMGW is an erroneous result of inadequate science being badly applied and then blindly hyped by various groups.

Alarmingly, the MMGW issue has stimulated a broad swath of emotion and legislation affecting much of the Nation’s political agenda. This combination of bad science and fear-mongering can lead to deflection of large national resources away from needy issues into the dead-end track of multiple “solutions” in search of a real problem. Furthermore, an important collateral damage is the gross deformation of American science and the scientific method into just another series of political sound bites.   At this stage of our Nation’s history, this is a misstep we would do well to avoid. 

The link below will  take you to the Powerpoint charts. To view, click on the icon below the chart, "full” (i.e.,  screen);  then use the new bottom arrows to navigate from chart to chart.  Here's the link; please discuss the issue with your friends.  Pass along your thoughts to your Congressional Representatives and other community leaders.

http://www.slideshare.net/MarkS181/manmade-co2-impact-one-skeptics-view-feb-15-08 

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CONCERNING THE ISSUE OF WATERBOARDING

 

I’m sending this note in connection with our Conservative Enthusiast Group, which meets monthly to discuss issues such as this.  We’d like your participation in our presentations as a presenter and/or a listener / questioner. If you have some thoughts on issues that you feel need further exposure or discussion, please contact Mark S at  msussm@msn.com  to coordinate a meeting date and time allocation for your briefing.

 

This blog is largely in Powerpoint format.  The subject is the morality of using waterboarding to extract critical intelligence from captured Terrorists.  There has been a fair amount reported on this issue in the news recently.  Most of the Media have been critical of this method.  But the media assessment is usually made in the absence of any cogent  counter-argument.  In fact there is an implicit assumption that there is no room for counter-argument.  But is this really true?  Arguments are made in the  presentation below that challenge  that assumption.
 
The link below will  take you to the Powerpoint charts. You can click on the icon below the chart, "full” (i.e.,  screen);  then use the bottom arrows to navigate from chart to chart.  

Here's the link; please discuss the issue with your friends.  Pass along your thoughts to your Congressional Representatives.

http://www.slideshare.net/MarkS181/morality-of-waterboarding 

 

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Michael Medved's Attack on Tom Tancredo

  

To Michael Medved:

Michael, I find your analyses are usually objective and skillful. In the case of your August 8 Townhall column, Talk of Bombing Mecca Undermines US Security”, I don't think you responded to Tom Tancredo's ultimate point. You say, accurately, that Tancredo suggested "that such threats against Mecca and Medina could serve to deter Islamic Terrorists from staging nuclear attacks on the United States." You don't talk about the pre-requisite nuclear event implicit in Tancredo's promised retaliation.


So, to me, your analysis fails to address 2 critical points: (1) How should the U.S. respond IF a stateless Terrorist Group succeeded in a nuclear attack which killed, say, 100,000 Americans? And, more importantly, WHAT should the U.S. do to prevent such a horrendous loss of innocent American life in the first place?


Now I can agree that the choice of a nuclear attack on Mecca may not be the best strategic weapon or target.  But a deterrent policy that promises swift, devastating conventional bombing RESPONSE -- on the infrastructure of Countries known to be now coddling Terrorists -- strikes me as little different than the M.A.D. policy announced and implemented by America with high credibility against the Soviet Union during the multi-decade-long Cold War. You could say that was equally irrational and would only serve to enrage the Communists.  But you may have noticed that this “M.A.D.” deterrent apparently succeeded.

Moreover, the sworn duty of our President is to protect this Nation.  Losing 100,000 Americans -- after already losing 3000 Americans on 9/11 to the same enemy -- would certainly have to be regarded as a colossal failure to perform that duty.


So I believe that a "new M.A.D. policy", adapted to the current/future asymmetric warfare that we are likely facing for several decades -- is not that irrational. Clearly, there should be some associated threshold of American lives lost in the pre-requisite attack on us: [100 lives lost? OK, too small. 5000 lives lost? OK, perhaps still too small. 100,000 lives lost? Perhaps including my children and grandchildren? Perhaps including your children and grandchildren? NOT TOO SMALL a threshold in my book !]


Such a policy begins to hold accountable those Nations who currently get a free ride for coddling Terrorists, a situation which is enabling the continued slaughter of our best and brightest. If you attack Tom Tancredo as "unhinged and wildly irresponsible", I think you are at least required to offer your own solution to both the (1)deterrence issue to avoid slaughter of American innocents, and (2)the issue of holding accountable those nations which permit the stateless al-Qaeda-like groups to hide behind the sanctuary they provide.


An unhinged and irresponsible strategy? Well, perhaps to some. But then, what is your strategy to prevent al Qaeda's promised "American Hiroshima"?


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The Senate's Work On Immigration Is Unfinished

 

The recently defeated Senate immigration bill, S.1639 has been administered a well-deserved execution. I realize that many in the media and some elected officials believe this death to be the work of a few misguided, right wing die-hards. But the truth is: i) the American people overwhelmingly disliked this bill (and for good cause), ii) independent of any saving-grace features - - this bill was birthed in a back room and the American people had zero confidence in our government to deliver on the enforcement aspects, having seen no evidence in that regard since 1986.

Some say we had to "swallow the whole package, in order to achieve a political consensus”. This is just a political excuse for failing to do what is right and honest. And this turns the concept of a government of, by and for the people on its head. Elected officials should not arrogantly assume that the people really don’t "understand". Particularly when the public outcry was so vehement. Rather, our elected officials need to accept the people’s verdict: earn the public trust first by enforcing our existing laws, remove the current chaos of a totally dysfunctional immigration system, and support the safety of current citizens before institutionalizing benefits to illegal aliens.

Today, a vacuum exists in this legislative arena. Our elected officials need to hunker down, do the people’s bidding and earn the public’s trust. Enforce the current law. Add new legislation to toughen significantly the penalties for breaking the law. Regain control of the total immigration process through improved identity and tracking procedures. In short, make this government competent in this arena. Let the law operate for 2-3 years and prove itself. Then, and only then, should legislation regarding a Guest Worker program and any associated entitlements allocation, be instituted.

There should be no excuses for failure to act. If the current set of elected officials cannot summon the will and integrity to make America the law-abiding Nation it once was, then the people must fire them and hire better public servants. Fortunately, in America, the elected officials cannot (at least not yet) fire the American people.

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Mr. President, Leaders Need Followers

  

I like President Bush.  If I could get his attention for a minute and speak to him as a friend, I'd take him aside and say this: I applaud your persistence in Iraq for 4+ years.  But I strongly condemn your blind rigidity on the immigration issue.

You think the public doesn’t  “understand” this bill.  In fact, “We the People” understand only too well the failure of your Administration to enforce border control for 6 years. We suffer the crime impact and we pay the costs due to your failures. We worry about the Terrorists who are penetrating our borders, possibly with nuclear weapons devices.  Your own FBI Director, Bob Mueller, believes this latter worry is not paranoia.  He says he loses sleep over this at night.   So, what we don’t understand is NOT the Senate Bill, but how you can expect us to swallow more paper promises after 6 years of failed performance.

Here’s what we want:
1) Total border enforcement – 100%
2) Enforcement of total benefits denial, in the realms of workplace and entitlements,  to any non-citizen. This requires demonstration and use of a tamperproof ID system.
3) When the above 2 items have been demonstrated to be effective for several years, then a “Guest Worker’ program can be added, with proper safeguards: i) Any job must first be offered to a U.S. citizen. Only after finding zero applicants, can it be added for guest worker listing. ii) All guest worker jobs must have a time limit not to exceed 1 year and a fail-safe mechanism to accompany the worker out of the Country, on completion of the job duration.  iii) The “guest” worker provision applies to the wage earner only, not to any family members. 

That is, we want a controlled, enforceable, legal process.

Now we are not anti-immigrant.  My 4 grandparents were proud immigrants.  But we oppose  out-of-control  illegal immigration.  It's a sign of a messy housekeeper.  Now, I revere this Country as my own home. And I object to your Administration's messy housekeeping.  I voted for you twice as a patriotic, competent executive.  You have less than 2 years  to prove me not wrong.

Now, back to Iraq. A recent news story says you have decided not to attack Iran. To me, this is a decision to forfeit further lives of our servicemen to a policy of lose-the-war in Iraq.  In 2001, you pronounced yourself a “War President”. I took solace in that assessment.  But War Presidents must WIN, not LOSE the war !   That means you must apply American might to vanquish and lay prostrate the enemy, until he no longer has an appetite to fight. That means: i) innocent civilians, must be accorded 2nd priority, well below the lives of American servicemen. Any other approach prolongs this war, sees more Americans die and is an immoral position; ii) Enemy enablers such as Iran, Syria (and segments of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan) must be damaged sufficiently so they conclude their policy is not prudent.  Today, you're allowing them to inflict casualties on us without any retribution in kind.

So, Mr. President …please return to your vision and promise.  Renounce the recent  turnabout of your view of the American Citizen as uninformed and in need of education.  Rejoin Thomas Jefferson in his trust in the American people.  Renounce the recent softening of your view to pursue Democracy in the Middle East. It's a noble view and worthy of sacrifice and tenacity.  Rejoin Ronald Reagan in his quest to preserve Liberty and destroy the new Evil Empire. 

Mr. President, I want to follow your leadership -- but not over a cliff.

 

 

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